Turning to the Liberal Democrats, their second preferences now split fairly evenly, but with the Conservatives just ahead: 31% to the Conservatives, 24% to the Greens and 24% to Labour. Again, looking at what would ultimately happen to Lib Dem votes if they had to be transfered to Con or Lab, 46% would end up in the Conservative pile, 39% in the Labour pile, 15% neither.Why should we throw a lifeline (by voting for AV) to people who would use it to give the Tories second preference votes? The Lib Dems are morphing into the centre-right party their leadership and coalition partners want. And it's reciprocated by the Tories who would also largely give 2nd prefs to the LDs (much more than UKIP):
Conservative voters are now most likely to give second preferences to the Lib Dems (41%), followed by UKIP (27%). UKIP are, of course, unlikely to actually benefit from many Conservative second preferences – what will actually matter in the course of most election counts is how Conservative voters’ lower preferences divide between Labour and Liberal Democrats – here 29% of Conservative voters do not give Labour or the Liberal Democrats any preference, 8% put Labour higher on their ballot, 63% put the Liberal Democrats higher on their ballot.Labour 2nd prefs would now largely go to the Greens (as mine would) but because they would get eliminated v early on that wouldn't really matter anyway. So Labour voters not wanting to support the Coalition can't even make the additinal vote count.